A reminder that adoption rates of autonomous vehicles will probably be slower even though eventually they will be the norm
McKinsey research sees fully autonomous cars being 15 percent of sales by 2030, “once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved.” That might be spot on. My point is simply that those technological and regulatory issues are substantial—and so are those related to consumer attitudes and acceptance. Yes, there is a future for both EVs and AVs. Volvo’s recent announcement that it is going to transition toward an all-EV platform beginning in 2019 is just one more indication of this. But as the recent history of EVs shows, just because a cool technology exists doesn’t mean it is going to take over the market at speed and scale. The same is likely to be true of AVs: This is going to be long road, and a bumpy one.